absolutely alex’s adventures & times

It is tragic every time senseless killings make the news.

It is even sadder when it involves the long-running blood feud between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

After a lull in suicide attacks by Palestinians on Israel for almost two years, the peace was shattered today by the killing of eight Jewish seminary students in Jerusalem by a gunman believed to be Palestinian or Israeli Arab.

BBC photo

The shooting also left nine others injured, three gravely. The attacker, who was reportedly working alone, was killed on the spot by an Israeli army officer. Apparently, a little-known group calling themselves the Jalil Freedom Battalions – the Martyrs of Imad Mughniyeh and Gaza was behind the killing.

What a horrible waste of young lives this incident is. The worst thing is that it will not end here.

While families of those affected grieve, others are already demanding retaliation on the Palestinians.

The anger among the Israelis is understandable. They have already been going through a nerve-wreaking week, with the recent firing of more powerful rockets by Palestinians extremists from Gaza into Israeli towns. The Israeli army had been busy answering that by launching a raid into Gaza, resulting in over a hundred Palestinian deaths and a dangerous increase in tension.

Today’s massacre will only toughen Israeli resolve to retaliate and crush further attempts. What will follow, to the detriment of all sides, is another cycle of violence, where more deaths and sadness will result.

It is risible that the Hamas government, which is in charge of the Gaza Strip, called the shooting “heroic”.

“This is a normal response to all the Israel occupation, commission and aggression, and they [have] committed massacres inside the Gaza and West Bank – about 128 [people were] killed, 30 of them children and infants, people and elderly and [women]. So I find this is a normal response to all Israel’s occupational crimes, and waging a war against the Palestinians,” Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum told the world unrepentantly.

And while the rest of the world sent condolences to the victims’ families and condemned the violence, Palestinians were out celebrating on the streets at the news of shooting.

When will they ever learn that their problems would not be solved by blowing themselves up or taking others’ lives?

When will they realize that violence only begets more violence and lives lost would be in vain?

With attitudes like this, there seems to be little hope in the continuation of peace talks between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Just yesterday, after talks with US Secretary of State Condolezza Rice, the two had agreed to restart peace talks that had stalled in the wake of the recent violence. Though they did not say when that might happen, that now seems extremely unlikely to be anytime soon, in the wake of today’s shooting.

After constantly tightening the screw, Hamas, which now runs Gaza, has managed to get a Palestinian militant group holding BBC reporter Alan Johnston to set him free.

The Army of God had held the reporter hostage since March 12, or for nearly four months.

He was reported to be back in the BBC’s Gaza office, in good health.

Television footage showed Johnston exiting a building and entering a white car while accompanied by armed men. Johnston was handed over to the Hamas authorities.

Hamas, which beat its Palestinian rival Fatah to gain control of Gaza in June, had made freeing Johnston a top priority, vowing to “use all means to secure his life and to free him”. Two weeks ago, hopes had been running high that Johnston would be immediately released, thanks to Hamas’ insistence.

But the members of the Army of God had said they were not complying and even threatened to kill Johnston if their demand for the release of several Palestinian prisoners, some of whom are held in the UK. The Army of God even heightened fears for Johnston’s life when they showed a video of the reporter with an explosives belt strapped onto him. They had also released other videos of Johnston.

The BBC reports that on Monday, Hamas security forces had detained members of the Army of God in Gaza.

“The arrests were carried out after all negotiation attempts… failed to free the abducted journalist,” the Hamas-run interior ministry said in a statement. “The arrests are targeting figures who were involved in the abduction of the journalist.”

The BBC has put an online petition on its website, urging people to sign it for Johnston’s freedom.

Tony Blair is in a hurry to leave British politics altogether.

Besides leaving his post as the prime minister of the UK today, he will also quit his job as a member of parliament in his Sedgefield constituency.

He’s moving on to a major diplomatic job, which his credentials as the prime minister that brought peace to the Northern Ireland conflict that killed over three thousand and dragged on for decades, proved helpful in helping him secure. He is going to be the Middle East envoy, representing the so-called Quartet of Mideast mediators: the US, UN, European Union and Russia, with a salary of reportedly some 120,000 pounds per annum.

Blair had been quoted saying that the Middle East peace process needs to be micro-managed in the same way that he handled the Northern Ireland peace process. He will soon get his wish to be that micro-manager.

But will he be as successful in dealing with a hugely intractable Palestinian issue? It’s going to be a tough rough ahead for Blair.

His main duties involve working with the Palestinians over security, economy and governance. Given the situation on the ground, it will largely mean shoring up Mahmud Abbas’ Fatah government, which has lost power in Gaza to its bitter rival, the radical Islamist Hamas party. But it would also likely mean trying to bring about unity between the two estranged groups — no easy task for anybody, even someone with a gifted touch at communicating like Blair.

On the plus side, Blair is considered a friend by both the Palestinians and Israelis. Israel had promised full cooperation if Blair was appointed as the Quartet’s envoy.

Blair had also had a tradition of supporting the Palestinian cause, being able to boast of strong relations with the late Yasser Arafat and had the distinction of being one of the first Western leaders to endorse the “two-state solution,” which relates to a Palestinian state co-existing in peace with Israel.

Fahmi al-Zaarer, a spokesman for Abbas’ Fatah movement, said Palestinians would welcome Blair. “We believe that Mr. Blair’s efforts would help … revive the political process,” he said, according to an AP report.

But much obstacles lie before Blair, with some even saying that his job is hopeless.

Many Palestinians had expressed scepticism at Blair’s new posting.

For one, Blair’s appointment is known to have been pushed mightily by the US, which lobbied the UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon hard.

That isn’t going to change the opinion that Blair is still in the US government’s pocket and dispel the mistrust they have about Blair’s independence. Palestinians are also likely to see Blair as working more on the side of the Israelis, with his closeness to the US.

It’s no easy task Blair is taking on, and one that isn’t likely to be solved just by talk. Blair, unfortunately, is no doubt impressively good at talking but critics have pointed out often that he is more style than substance. And talk isn’t going to be enough to bring about the peace that’s needed.

The envoy job is also bound to be highly frustrating and Blair might find himself working hard but having nothing to show for it even after a period of time. Others that have tried and failed include former US president Bill Clinton, who’s no slouch in the diplomatic arena. Blair’s predecessor in the position, James Wolfensohn, reportedly resigned out of frustration after barely a year on the job.

The final most imposing question is — do the Israelis and Palestinians want peace as much as the Quartet or anyone else? At the end of the day, if the two central players cannot surmount the entrenched level of acrimony and don’t have the will to come to an agreement, it would all be futile for anyone else trying to get them to stop fighting. Blair will have to slog for his money and certainly has his work cut out for him.

But if that doesn’t work out, Blair certainly has other fall-back plans — the lecture circuit and writing his memoirs, which will no doubt keep him busy and well-paid for a while yet.

Things have taken a decidedly worse turn for abducted BBC reporter Alan Johnston today, as his captors released a video of him with an explosives vest strapped to him.

The BBC showed a new video tape that is purportedly released by Johnston’s captors, a little-known Gaza-based group known as the Army of Islam.

“The situation now is very serious. As you can see I have been dressed in what is an explosive belt, which the kidnappers say will be detonated if there was any attempt to storm this area,” Johnston said in the tape. “Captors tell me that very promising negotiations were ruined when the Hamas movement and the British government decided to press for a military solution to this kidnapping.”

The Washington Post said the newest developments could be the sign of a split between the Dagmoush clan, which controls the Army of Islam, and the Islamic gunmen holding Johnston. Part of the complications also involve the fear that Hamas, which now runs Gaza after winning a bloody showdown against Fatah, will move against the Dagmoush clan after Johnston’s release.

Hamas has made it a priority to release Johnston after it came to power. Hopes had raised for Johnston’s safe return soon, as the Hamas leadership had vowed to free him, and also prevent other foreign journalists from being held against their wills.

The Army of Islam had demanded the release of prisoners, such as Abu Qatada, a Palestinian-born Muslim cleric held in the UK on suspicion of being linked to al-Qaeda.

Johnston has been in captivity for over 100 days, after he was snatched in the middle of March in Gaza City.

In what is perhaps a setback for the release of kidnapped BBC reporter Alan Johnston, his kidnappers have gone to the media, not with news of his freedom, but with threats to kill him if their demands were not met.

Gaza-based extremist group, the Army of Islam, which had said it has held Johnston since March, denied the Hamas’ line last Friday that Johnston’s release was imminent.

Hopes had earlier been raised that Johnston might see freedom soon after Hamas took control of Gaza late last week after a week of bloody fighting with its rival Palestinian faction, Fatah.

“Freeing this detainee has not been part of any deal with any faction or organisation. What appears on television screens and through the media here and there are untrue,” an Army of Islam spokesman said on al-Jazeera television channel. “If they do not meet our demands there will be no release for that detainee and if things become more difficult … then we would seek God’s satisfaction by slaughtering this journalist.”

The Army of Islam wants the release of Islamist prisoners, in particular Palestinian-born cleric Abu Qatada, who is detained in the UK.

Hamas has been anxious to secure Johnston’s release as it tries to show the world that it is battling the lawlessness in Gaza which its says is due to the lack of good governance by Fatah. It was also a sign to the international community that Hamas had no intention of threatening or holding foreign journalists.

In many ways, this would be a test for Hamas. It is anxious to prove that it has control over Gaza and has the ability to bring a semblance of stability there, even as most predict its failure, due to Gaza’s isolation and its dwindling supplies of electricity and food. International governments have reacted to Hamas’ victory there by bolstering their support of its rival, the Palestinian Authority’s President Mahmoud Abbas. The US has pledged to stop its embargo against the Palestinian Authorities, while Israel had said it could work with a Palestinian government that does not have Hamas as a part of it.

Treated as a pariah state by the international community, Gaza will face much hardship in the coming weeks. It would be to Hamas’ advanatage to score a public relations victory by securing Johnston’s release.

It’s amazing that Bill Clinton was impeached for lying about his personal life when it really affected no one outside of his family, while Bush goes on free to wreak more havoc, even as close to 4,000 Americans lives have been lost, over half a million Iraqis had perished, and billions of dollars flushed down the drain, due to the ill-conceived, meaningless war in Iraq predicated on lies.

The Washington Post today published a report of how the CIA had given the worst case scenarios of an invasion of Iraq back in 2002.The soothsayers at CIA had predicted an outcome that has become chillingly true – anarchy and territorial breakup in Iraq, a rise in global terrorism, and a rise in Islamic feelings against the US.

Assuming that the idiots at the White House can read, they obviously ignored any of the warnings in the prescient report and cherry-picked the information they wanted to make a case for going to war with Iraq, even though all evidence point against the action and public opinion, from experts in the Middle East, to generals, opposing the move.

It once again confirms what we have known and suspected all along – the Bush administration was always going to invade Iraq, it was just a matter of when. 9/11 came along as a bonanza for them to exploit the nation’s raw emotions and con the American people into believing the Iraqi invasion was part of the war on terror.

The worst thing is that they have been forewarned that the US would lose and be stuck in a quagmire that has no easy solutions, with less help from allies. And yet, they proceeded with the invasion.

The CIA report had also warned of lessening European support for US leadership, Afghanistan slipping into more strife with less attention and resources – again things that have come to pass.

So despite reports of attacks on US troops getting more sophisticated and even lethal, the Bush administration is exploring the idea of stationing US troops in Iraq for the long-term, like in South Korea.

Put a aside the vast differences in the circumstances between the Korean and Iraqi scenarios – the US being in Korea with the country’s and the UN’s blessings; the large splintered factions in Iraq versus the more homogeneous and united South Koreans; and the kind of tyrannical and iron-fisted government needed in Iraq under Saddam to hold a multi-ethnic nation together – the only party to welcome long-term US presence in the region is likely only to be Israel. Arab nations, which might initially be happy to see a counterweight to a rising Iran, might in the long term be extremely uncomfortable or even against a long term US buildup in their backyard.

So never mind that these long term bases will make the perfect target for insurgents, underline their rallying call that the country has being occupied by the US and act as an even more effective recruitment tool for fighters against the US. Never mind that more US blood will be needlessly spilled on this senseless adventure. Iraq will never become Korea, the circumstances between the two cases are just so vastly different.

Deep down, the Bush administration must know this, but again, have chosen to ignore the realities of the situation to impose their beliefs, which they arrogantly think will come to pass if they believed it enough or pushed it hard enough.

But ultimately, the administration’s top priority is made clear by the revelation of their wanting to stay there in the long haul — the protection of US oil interests by the permanent bases in Iraq. The other logical conclusion is that the US wants a launch pad into their next target, Iran.

Congress had better wake up and stop being weak-spined. It is time to force a pull out before it becomes entrenched, and the time to do it is now, as Bush loses traction with his base due to the immigration issue. And the American people too, should realize the dire consequences of a long-term stay in Iraq and make sure to vote in a new government that will prevent the Bush vision from being fulfilled.